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O primeiro cenário testado foi pulverizado, trazendo também nomes como o senador Otto Alencar (PSD) e o vice-governador João Leão (PP), dois caciques partidários e que eventualmente podem disputar o Palácio de Ondina. O ex-prefeito de Salvador tem 49,3%, enquanto Wagner tem menos que a metade, 21,4%.
A secretária de Saúde de Porto Seguro, Raíssa Soares, que é citada como um potencial nome do bolsonarismo na disputa pelo governo da Bahia aparece com 3,9% das intenções de voto, mesmo percentual do senador Otto Alencar. João Leão aparece abaixo, como opção para 2,5% dos eleitores. Completam a lista estimulada o vereador Alexandre Aleluia (DEM), com 0,6%, e ex-vereador Marcos Mendes (PSOL), com 0,5%. Brancos e nulos somam 12,5% e apenas 5,3% não souberam ou não responderam.
Em um cenário mais reduzido, mantida a coalizão do grupo político do governador Rui Costa em torno da candidatura de Wagner, ACM Neto também tem mais do que o dobro de votos do petista. O ex-gestor da capital baiana marca 51,9% das intenções de voto e Wagner fica com 24,2%. A dra. Raíssa Soares, que ficou nacionalmente conhecida pela defesa do ‘kit Covid’ sem eficácia comprovada para tratamento precoce da Covid-19, é opção para 4,2% dos baianos. Marcos Mendes foi opção para 0,8%. Brancos e nulos aumentam nesse cenário: 13,8%, enquanto o número de eleitores que não souberam ou não responderam cai para 5%.
A pesquisa ouviu 2002 eleitores em 186 municípios da Bahia entre os dias 20 e 24 de março de 2020. A margem de erro é de 2% e o levantamento foi realizado por telefone com baianos com mais de 16 anos. Informações do BN.
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